3 Housing Market Fears That Aren't Going to Happen in Atlanta
There's a lot of noise in the market right now, and the headlines are doing their best to keep you anxious. If you've been thinking about buying a home, all that uncertainty can make you freeze up before you even get started.
A recent CNBC study asked buyers what worries them most. Three things kept rising to the top:
Mortgage rates
The number of homes for sale
Home prices
The truth? A lot of what you're hearing is based on misconceptions, not facts. Let me walk you through what's really going on.
Misconception #1: "I'll Wait Because Mortgage Rates Are Going to Crash."
Social media has decided rates are about to plummet, and you're better off waiting it out. I get the appeal — who doesn't want a lower rate?
But here's the reality: while rates have eased a bit in recent weeks, the experts aren't forecasting a dramatic drop anytime soon. The likely scenario is that rates stay in the low 6% range for the rest of this year — not too different from where they are now (see graph below):
Sure, things could shift if inflation or the economy take a turn. But based on what we know today, holding out for a big rate drop probably isn't the move. As U.S. News explained:
"Mortgage rates aren't expected to change much over the next several quarters..."
And don't forget: today's rates already make buying more affordable than a year ago. Even if rates don't budge much, you're better off than buyers were 12 months ago.
Misconception #2: "There Are Too Many Homes For Sale Right Now."
You've probably heard inventory is climbing — and yes, nationally it is. There are 8% more homes for sale than this time last year. But that's not bad news. That's part of why my Atlanta buyers have a little more breathing room than they did before.
The problem is headlines twisting good news into bad. They focus on how this is the highest inventory since 2019, or how builders are putting up new homes left and right. That can make it sound like we've got too many houses sitting on the market.
We don't.
According to Realtor.com, even with inventory up year-over-year, we're still nearly 14% below where the housing market was in 2017–2019 — the last "normal" stretch we had:
And right here in Atlanta, I'm seeing the same pattern. More options for buyers than last year, but nowhere near the kind of oversupply that fueled the 2008 crash. Only 9 states across the country have more inventory than they did pre-pandemic.
Misconception #3: "Home Prices Are About to Crash."
This is the one that gets the most clicks. A few metros are seeing small price declines, and the influencers are using that to claim the whole market is about to fall apart.
That's not what the numbers show.
In most parts of the country, prices are still rising. Here's why:
Most homeowners are sitting tight because they don't want to give up the low rates they locked in a few years ago. That keeps a lid on how fast inventory can grow.
Inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels, which means there just aren't enough homes for sale to drive prices way down.
In markets where inventory is higher, plenty of sellers are choosing to pull their homes rather than drop their price.
What about Atlanta specifically? Yes, we've seen a slight year-over-year dip of about 2.7%. But here's what the doomscrollers won't tell you: Atlanta home values are still up 32.6% compared to 2021 (see graph below):
That's not a crash. That's a market catching its breath after a few years of record-breaking growth.
Bottom Line
The headlines are going to keep dialing up the drama. If you want the real story about what's happening in our market — based on actual data, not clickbait — I'm here for that conversation.
Let's connect. I'll help you separate fact from fiction so you can make your next move with confidence.
— Raegan Thorp, Raegan Thorp Real Estate Group
